ESPE Abstracts (2014) 82 P-D-1-2-156

Gender Difference in Secular Trend in Sweden

Anton Holmgrena,b, Aimon Niklassona, Andreas F M Nieropc, Lars Gelandera, Agneta Sjöbergd, Stefan Aronsonb & Kerstin Albertsson-Wiklanda


aGP-GRC Department of Pediatrics, Institute of Clinical Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden, bDepartment of Pediatrics, Halmstad Hospital, Halmstad, Sweden, cMuvara bv, Multivariate Analysis of Research Data, Leiderdorp, The Netherlands, dDepartment of Food and Nutrition and Sport Science, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden


Background, objective and hypotheses: By using QEPS, a new mathematic growth model, different components of growth can be analyzed, comparing secular trends of prepubertal and pubertal growth in Swedish birth cohorts born 1974 and 1990.

Materials and methods: Two birth cohorts followed to adult height (AH) born around 1974 (1691 boys; 1666 girls) and 1990 (1647 boys; 1501 girls) being healthy, Nordic and born term. A subpopulation of 1974 (1177 boys; 1168 girls) and 1990 (989 boys; 919 girls) with >10 height measurements evenly distributed during growth phases, and high data quality was used for comparison. The different components of the QEPS-model: (Q)uadratic, (E)xponential, (P)ubertal, and (S)top function were estimated with corresponding maximum values at AH and tempo adjusting ‘time scale ratios’ of E and P. Multivariate regression analyses were used for explaining the variation of AH.

Results: Both boys and girls born 1990 compared to those born 1974 had at birth an increased lengthSDS and weightSDS and during infancy a more rapid growth (shorter Etimescale). Boys -1990 had increased prepubertal growth (P<0.0001 for Qmax, Qheightscale), their pubertal part of growth was not significantly changed. Their AHcm increased 1.3 from 180.4 to 181.7; the variation in AH was explained to 44% by mid parental height (MPH) and birth characteristics, to 72% by adding Qmax, to 75% by pubertal onset age and to 99% by Pmax. Girls -1990 had prepubertal growth increased (P<0.05 for Qmax, Qheightscale). Their pubertal gain was markedly increased (P<0.001 for Pmax; Pheightscale), and duration decreased whereas mean menarche age remained 12.8 years. AHcm increased 0.7 from 167.6 to 168.3. AH could be explained to 52% by MPH and birth characteristics, to 71% by adding Qmax, to 75% by pubertal onset, and to 99% by Pmax.

Conclusion: In cohorts born 16-years apart; a secular trend with increased AHcm was found, 1.3 in boys, due to more prepubertal growth, 0.7 in girls, due to more pubertal growth, indicating gender specific underlying regulations.

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