ESPE Abstracts (2016) 86 P-P1-227

Rising of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Incidence in Chilean Children Between 2006 and 2014

Carolina Garfiasa, Hernan Garciaa, Francisca Ugartec, Yonathan San Martinb, Arturo Bortzuskia & Jaime Cerdaa

aPontificia Univesidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; bMinisterio d Salud Departamento de Gestion de la Informacion, Santiago, Chile; cUniversidad de Los Andesn, Santiago, Chile

Background: T1DM incidence in children varies across regions and countries, showing a continue rise Worldwide.

Objective and hypotheses: To determine the incidence of T1D in Chilean children under 20 years between 2006 and 2012.

Method: We reviewed mandatory notifications of T1D (GES Program) in Chile’s public health system in population younger than 20 years between 2006 and 2014. Data were obtained from the Department of Information Management of the Chilean Ministry of Health. Data were analysed according to sex, age, region and season. Time trends of T1D incidence were analysed by linear and exponential regressions.

Results: 4.153 T1D cases in children under 20 years were notified from 2006 to 2014. Median age was 14 (IQR) and 51% were male. Highest caseload of T1D incidence occurred in winter (28%) and lowest in autumn (21%). The average annual T1D incidence was 12.5/100 000 new cases, with an increase from 10.3 in 2006 to 16.3 in 2014 (β 0.8 95%CI 0.6–0.9, P=0.001). A significant increasing linear trend of T1D incidence was observed in groups of age 0–4 years (β 0.3, 95% CI 0.06–0.6, P=0.02), 5–9 years (β 0.7 95% CI 0.2–1.27, P=0.009) and 10–14 (β 0.88, 95% CI 0.62–1.14, P<0.001), but not in age group 15—19 where a non-significant increasing or decreasing trend was observed (β 0.027, 95% CI −0.31 to 0.37, P=0.85). There was an association between latitude and T1D incidence during the study period. The incidence in the Metropolitan region is 12/100 000 new cases in the period. The lowest regional incidence of T1D was observed in the Araucanía (IX) and Los Rios (XIV) region with 6.9 and 7.1/100 000 new cases respectively. This difference is significate less than the incidence of the Metropolitan region, (P<0.03 and P<0.05 respectively, with 95% CI) Araucania region has the largest percentage of population of indigenous Mapuche ethnicity in the country. The highest incidence in the period was observed in Coquimbo region (IV) with 18/100 000 new cases, with a significant difference with the Metropolitan region (P<0.06 with 95% CI).

Conclusion: Our study shows that incidence rates of T1D in Chile are rapidly increasing in population under 20 years, particularly in group between 5 to 9 and 10 to 15. If increasing trends persist we estimate Chile will reach T1D incidence rates of western developed countries in the next years.

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